Lead times continue to rise sharply
Tender lead times, which measure the gap between when a shipper tenders a load and the date they want it picked up, have been increasing for six straight years. The SONAR Tender Lead Time index (STLT) tracks this metric, and its current reading sits at 3.74 days, above the running average of 3.37 from 2022 through 2025.
Seasonal Patterns and Underlying Trends
The STLT chart reveals a seasonal pattern, with bumps around early summer and the holidays, as shippers front-load tenders ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, the underlying trendline is also creeping upward year after year, independent of the holiday spikes.
This trend suggests that shippers are planning further in advance, possibly due to improved forecasting tools and tighter sales and operations planning (S&OP) processes. Additionally, trade policy volatility and pulled-forward import activity in recent years may have given shippers extra buffer time before freight needed to move domestically.
Implications for Carriers and Shippers
For carriers, longer lead times mean better equipment positioning, fewer scrambles, and potentially fewer service failures. However, this also gives shippers more time to plan and ship, increasing their ability to shift freight onto intermodal, which could erode the sense of urgency that favors trucking.
Shippers have been forced to make their supply chains more resilient to shocks created by erratic trade policy shifts and geopolitical disruptions. Many have been holding more inventory than they strictly need, giving them more time to ship downstream.
Related: Shippers Opt for Trucking Over Intermodal Routes
The recent implementation of new Section 301 tariffs has created a need for shippers to buffer inventories. With the administration’s numerous additional tariffs in the pipeline, this level of tariff activity is likely to persist, influencing inventory levels and lead times.
Market Implications and Future Outlook
For carriers, the read-through is mostly favorable from an operational perspective: more lead time means better equipment positioning, fewer scrambles, and in theory fewer service failures. The possible negative implication sits on the other side of that same coin: longer lead times give shippers more time to plan and ship, which increases their ability to shift freight onto intermodal — eroding the sense of urgency that otherwise favors trucking.
Trade policy and geopolitical disruptions will likely continue to influence lead times, and shippers will need to adapt to these changes to remain competitive.
The supply chain is complex, and understanding the factors that influence lead times is key for making informed decisions. By analyzing the STLT and other metrics, shippers and carriers can better handle the freight market and make data-driven decisions.
